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The best to each contestant. I use a spreadsheet to forecast when certain goals may be obtainable. In this case, the 100K Milestone. Based on historical data, the predicted date is 12/04/2009 at 08:02:14 a.m. [this is only a prediction]. Given that prediction, contestants closest to that date and time are highlighted [a difference of 5 or less] and may be the winner of $100 from the Cycling Experiences… Blog. Check in weekly, after midnight Sundays to see who is closest to the date of the 100K Milestone.
I use conditional formatting to highlight the contestant(s) whose difference between their prediction and my forecast is less than 5. As I see it, either may win. Of course, the winner will be determined by the blog actually reaching the milestone, not the spreadsheet predictor. My predictor is trending toward early December. About 3 weeks ago my prediction was mid-December. October was an active month. As a result, average daily hits are up.
To give you anonymity, I’m using the Response ID you were assigned when you completed the Poll Daddy Survey. I’ll contact you via email to let you know that you are the winner. If you want your name published, I’m happy to do that also. Thanks for your participation and adding to the excitement and joy of this occasion. Again, CONGRATS TO THE WINNING CONTESTANT [whomever you may be]!
Jim Artis
Related Posts:
- Okay, so what is your best guess…
- 100K Contest
- Milestone History [on my Notes Page]
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This calculator [click the image to see a larger picture] allows me to track my blog statistics over time and to predict with reasonable certainty when some events may occur. In this case, I’m using it to give annual projections and to predict the date the 100K Milestone may be reached based on historical data. The beginning month is only a one-day month, with 70 pageviews. That skews the prediction a fraction. After 11/30 I’ll have good data and then we will see how accurate the calc is as a predictor. My responsibility is to keep the numbers as consistent as possible. I accept positive slopes, however. At any rate, one of you will win this contest. Thanks for participating. –jim
For more information on the spreadsheet, to include actual downloads, see my Note Page or link to that page here.
Good “fall back” morning,
A couple of thoughts: 1) Just go ahead and publicize my name as the winner and we’ll get on with it although I do note that perhaps my special date may be a little late based upon your current prediction..
2) A suggestiont to add to the spreadsheet or on the blog itself if possible. Have a real time display of current visits subtracting from the 100k goal so that there is a real time running display of “visits to go”. (that should give you something to toy with today! )
- Zeke
Hi Zeke,
Isn’t your difference number a bit high for that. Now, if you had used David’s method [assuming he used one], I could very well be doing that. My predictor have been good for me. I love applying statistics. As, stated in other articles, the prediction is trending toward earlier, rather than later–thanks to all my wonderful readers. Shame, you could not see my prediction before your guess; but, you could. It was on my Notes Page as milestones were reached or simply divide total hits / 365; then divide 100K by that factor; then add that to the blog start date; look at recent trends; and then make your best guess. My head hurts.
Seriously, I got some viewers and activity that I may not have gotten otherwise and I get to give back [call it pay it forward]. Plus, I got to do some neat spreadsheet stuff. I call it my forte.
On your suggestion, I wish. I want real time in my blog. The best I can do is upload Google Docs and you view data there. The sheet is ugly. Windows Office Live is really for collaborators. Box.net lets you see my last upload. Office live does not require upload, but require that I invite, etc. etc. The data you ask for is in my spreadsheet at the bottom of the Contestants & Predictions Articles. The file with all of its details are at Box.net [link “StatCalc” on my Notes page. I’ve enjoyed watching over the last 1.5 months. There is really lots of data there.
Now that I’ve saved time, I can continue work on “my project” and/or get you an answer on your scale question.
Thanks for your participation and interest.
Jim